Natural Gas Showing Bullish Price Action

 

 

 Video Analysis Link Below

 

https://youtu.be/h1FgBPcKrCA

 

As of March 5, 2025, here’s the latest news on natural gas based on available information:

 

Natural gas markets are showing significant activity. U.S. natural gas futures have recently surged, with prices climbing about 10% to a 26-month high as of March 4, 2025. This spike is driven by record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and concerns over potential tariffs on Canadian imports, reflecting bullish sentiment despite some weather-related demand fluctuations. 

 

The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report indicated a substantial withdrawal of 261 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from storage, leaving inventories at 1,840 Bcf—well below last year’s levels and the five-year average, tightening supply outlooks. Globally, LNG developments are making headlines. 

 

On March 4, 2025, Vitol, a major energy trader, signed a long-term LNG supply deal with LNGPH in the Philippines, aimed at supporting 18% of Luzon’s power needs and advancing the country’s shift to cleaner energy. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil announced plans on March 4 to ramp up natural gas output in Guyana, targeting both domestic power needs and LNG exports, with fertilizer production also in scope. 

 

In Asia, Tokyo Gas acquired a 20% stake in a Philippine LNG terminal on March 4, marking its first overseas operational LNG terminal investment. Market dynamics are also shifting. Analysts note that despite warmer weather forecasts potentially softening demand midweek in the U.S., geopolitical risks and strong LNG export demand are keeping prices supported. 

 

Analyst highlight the focus on record LNG flows and tariff worries as key price drivers. Additionally, the Trump administration’s push to lift restrictions on LNG export projects, including potential approval of the Commonwealth LNG facility in Louisiana, could further bolster U.S. export capacity.

 

In summary, natural gas news reflects a mix of robust export growth, tightening domestic supplies, and strategic international deals, all shaping a dynamic market as of early March 2025.

February 23rd 2025 Weekly Forecast On Natural Gas!

 

Video Analysis Link Below

https://youtu.be/Z7nVW6FPq80

 Predicting where natural gas prices will close for the upcoming week—starting Monday, February 24, 2025—is tricky because it depends on a lot of moving parts like weather, supply, demand, and market sentiment. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I can give you a sense of what might happen based on current trends and insights.

Right now, as of February 23, 2025, natural gas prices are influenced by a mix of factors. The Henry Hub spot price was at $7.78 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday, February 19, after a big jump from $3.94 the week before, driven by colder weather across the U.S. Futures for March 2025 were up to $4.280/MMBtu by that same Wednesday, showing the market’s expecting some sustained demand. But here’s the catch: forecasts are hinting at milder weather in places like the Northeast next week, with temperatures possibly hitting the 50s. Warmer weather could cool off demand for heating, which might pull prices down a bit.

On the flip side, storage levels are tighter than usual—2,101 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of February 14, which is 5% below the five-year average—and withdrawals have been hefty lately (196 Bcf last week alone). That tightness could keep prices supported if cold snaps linger elsewhere or if LNG exports stay strong. Speaking of exports, the U.S. is shipping out a ton of liquefied natural gas—110 Bcf left ports between February 13 and 19—so global demand might prop things up too.

Looking at short-term forecasts, some analysts peg natural gas prices for Thursday, February 27, at around $3.812/MMBtu, with a range between $3.621 and $4.003. That’s a drop from last week’s highs, suggesting a possible easing off. Some also hint at a potential pullback, with milder weather in the forecast and some traders betting on a downward shift into March.

So, where might it close by Friday, February 28? If the milder weather dominates and storage worries don’t spike, I’d lean toward a close in the $3.50 to $3.80/MMBtu range—maybe around $3.70. But if unexpected cold hits or supply hiccups pop up, it could stick closer to $4.00 or even nudge higher. It’s a coin toss, really, and the market’s been jumpy lately, so anything’s possible.

Natural Gas February Trends 2025

 Natural Gas February Trends

Looking at broader trends, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data up to early February 2025 (from their latest updates) showed inventories at 2,297 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of February 7, down 100 Bcf from the prior week—below last year’s levels and the five-year average. This drawdown aligns with the cold snap.  Prices at the Henry Hub, a key benchmark, were around $3.22/MMBtu on February 5 (per EIA’s weekly update), some suggest they’ve since climbed past $4.2 by February 19, reflecting a rapid response to weather and export dynamics.

 

Weather’s a big driver here. February 2025 has apparently brought colder-than-expected conditions across parts of the U.S., increasing heating demand and straining production (frozen wells don’t help). Meanwhile, LNG exports are hitting records, likely due to new facilities like Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 ramping up, as noted in late 2024 forecasts. This combo—high domestic use plus export pressure—seems to be pushing prices up and inventories down faster than usual for late February.

 

February 18 warned of a potential warming trend late in the month, which could ease demand and lead to price dips if supply stabilizes. Volatility’s clearly in play, as they noted a smaller-than-expected inventory draw of 116 Bcf (possibly from an earlier EIA report this month), hinting supply might not be as tight as the price surge suggests.

So, natural gas in February 2025 is showing a lively mix: bullish price spikes driven by cold weather and LNG exports, tempered by whispers of a possible late-month cooldown.