Fading Freeze: Why Natural Gas Prices Are Thawing Out!

 

Video Analysis Link Below!

https://youtu.be/DXkxzGVO8Pw

 

The sentiment surrounding the upcoming EIA natural gas storage report, due tomorrow, March 13, 2025, appears mixed but leans cautiously bearish based on available forecasts and market commentary as of today, March 12, 2025, 4:35 PM CDT.

 

Analysts and traders are anticipating a storage withdrawal for the week ending March 7, though specific consensus estimates vary. Some analyst highlighted a bearish surprise in the previous EIA report (March 6), which showed an 80 Bcf withdrawal—smaller than the expected 94 Bcf. This miss, coupled with comments about weaker-than-anticipated draws across storage regions and potential gas-to-coal switching, suggests a softening demand picture that could carry forward. 

 

For tomorrow’s report, indicates a smaller draw than market consensus, hinting at another possible bearish surprise if inventories decline less than expected.

 

Fundamentally, the backdrop supports this cautious sentiment. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released March 11, notes that cold weather in January and February drove large withdrawals, leaving inventories 4% below the five-year average by January’s end. However, with March typically marking the tail end of the heating season, demand may be easing. Forecasts from the STEO suggest consumption in March will drop to 93 Bcf/d (still 3% above the five-year average), but milder weather could temper withdrawals further. 

 

That said, surprises are possible. Natural gas prices are sensitive to weather shifts, and any late-season cold snap could boost demand and tighten inventories more than expected, flipping sentiment bullish. Futures markets, with April 2025 NYMEX contracts closing around $3.959/MMBtu last week (per the EIA’s March 6 update), show traders are pricing in some stability but remain reactive to storage data.

 

In summary, sentiment ahead of tomorrow’s report tilts bearish due to expectations of a potentially smaller-than-average draw, ample supply signals, and fading winter demand. However, the market’s volatility means a bullish shift could emerge if the data deviates significantly from these projections.

Natural Gas Showing Bullish Price Action

 

 

 Video Analysis Link Below

 

https://youtu.be/h1FgBPcKrCA

 

As of March 5, 2025, here’s the latest news on natural gas based on available information:

 

Natural gas markets are showing significant activity. U.S. natural gas futures have recently surged, with prices climbing about 10% to a 26-month high as of March 4, 2025. This spike is driven by record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and concerns over potential tariffs on Canadian imports, reflecting bullish sentiment despite some weather-related demand fluctuations. 

 

The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report indicated a substantial withdrawal of 261 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from storage, leaving inventories at 1,840 Bcf—well below last year’s levels and the five-year average, tightening supply outlooks. Globally, LNG developments are making headlines. 

 

On March 4, 2025, Vitol, a major energy trader, signed a long-term LNG supply deal with LNGPH in the Philippines, aimed at supporting 18% of Luzon’s power needs and advancing the country’s shift to cleaner energy. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil announced plans on March 4 to ramp up natural gas output in Guyana, targeting both domestic power needs and LNG exports, with fertilizer production also in scope. 

 

In Asia, Tokyo Gas acquired a 20% stake in a Philippine LNG terminal on March 4, marking its first overseas operational LNG terminal investment. Market dynamics are also shifting. Analysts note that despite warmer weather forecasts potentially softening demand midweek in the U.S., geopolitical risks and strong LNG export demand are keeping prices supported. 

 

Analyst highlight the focus on record LNG flows and tariff worries as key price drivers. Additionally, the Trump administration’s push to lift restrictions on LNG export projects, including potential approval of the Commonwealth LNG facility in Louisiana, could further bolster U.S. export capacity.

 

In summary, natural gas news reflects a mix of robust export growth, tightening domestic supplies, and strategic international deals, all shaping a dynamic market as of early March 2025.